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# Bond Experts Wrong Nine Months Straight, Remain Experts
- URL: https://www.dailydebasement.com/bond-experts-wrong-nine-months-straight-remain-experts/
- Published: 2026-10-10T12:00:47.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-10T12:00:46.000Z
- Author: The Daily Debasement
- Tags: News, Money, Markets, Economy

NEW YORK — Wall Street bond strategists who have incorrectly predicted lower Treasury yields for nine consecutive months announced this week that yields are still definitely going lower, raising hopes that reality may finally correct its persistent forecasting error.

A Reuters poll of nearly 60 fixed-income strategists found the group expects the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 5.00% by year-end, 4.90% in six months and 4.75% within a year—even after the yield just posted its biggest quarterly increase since 1994.

“We remain extremely confident,” said one strategist, adjusting the date on the same PowerPoint slide for the ninth time. “Our forecast has not been wrong. The bond market has simply been unusually incorrect about what our forecast said it would do.”

Analysts noted the industry has developed a sophisticated process for handling missed predictions: lower the conviction, extend the timeline, cite several new uncertainties, and publish essentially the same prediction again.

Several strategists even acknowledged yields could remain above their forecasts in the near term, an advanced forecasting technique known as predicting something while simultaneously explaining why the opposite might happen.

Market observers praised the discipline.

“In science, being wrong nine times might cause you to reconsider the hypothesis,” said one economist. “Fortunately, this is finance.”

Strategists now expect yields to decline once inflation cools, borrowing slows, geopolitical tensions ease, Fed policy moderates, and the universe begins cooperating with the spreadsheet.

Until then, the forecast remains unchanged.

Only the future has been revised.

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Inspired by:

[Reuters - "Lower US Treasury yield view persists despite biggest quarterly surge since 1994: Reuters poll" (October 7, 2026)](https://www.reuters.com/business/lower-us-treasury-yield-view-persists-despite-biggest-quarterly-surge-since-1994-2026-10-07/?ref=dailydebasement.com)