HAWTHORNE, Calif. - SpaceX filed for a potential $1.75 trillion public valuation Wednesday after bankers completed a detailed discounted cash-flow analysis of several industries Elon Musk has not invented yet.
The filing showed strong Starlink economics alongside heavy losses tied to AI spending, while much of the company's long-term opportunity depends on future markets ranging from Mars operations to solar-powered data centers in space.
"Normally we forecast revenue from products a company sells," said an investment banker. "Here we forecast revenue from orbital compute facilities, interplanetary logistics, asteroid-adjacent manufacturing and whatever Elon says during the roadshow. The addressable market is functionally the future."
SpaceX also disclosed that Musk would retain overwhelming voting control, allowing public shareholders to participate meaningfully in the company by providing capital and then observing.
Valuation teams reportedly modeled Mars using a 31-times multiple on 2047 colony EBITDA, discounted back at a rate selected after everyone agreed lower rates produced a more inspirational number.
Analysts said investors may accept the unconventional assumptions because excluding a $1.75 trillion company from portfolios could itself become career risk, especially if one of the unbuilt businesses eventually works.
The prospectus lists ordinary risks including launch failures, regulation, competition and the possibility that humanity decides it does not need a hyperscale data center orbiting above Namibia.
Bookrunners have classified that final risk as remote.
Inspired by:
